Political turmoil in KTM – are local polls in the balance?

It’s a virtual cliffhanger to follow the drama in the run-up to the local election. The election was recently split into two phases – May 14 and June 14, as opposed to just May 14 – and now the second phase may be in the balance.

For reasons never made quite clear to the public, the newly formed six-party Madheshi coalition, Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN), continues to reiterate a Madheshi demand for more local government units in their districts.

On March 8 the government partially met this Madheshi demand. It adjusted the decision of the Local Bodies Restructuring Commission (LBRC) upwards – from 719 local units to 744 – in order to grant more local units (Village Council divisions) to the Madheshi districts.

But the Madheshi coalition was still not content. They demanded more local government units in their districts. The UML made strong objections and yet, on April 28 the government granted the RJNP another 11 local units.

The UML objected as the LBRC was the body mandated to determine the number of local government units. The LBRC submitted its final decision – 719 local units in total – in January after much political interference already.

The government seemed to argue, on its part, that unless giving at least partially in to this Madheshi demand, the Madheshi coalition would boycot the local election and likely even try to obstruct the election in their districts.

But adding local units alone is not enough to appease the Madheshis. Their further demand – amidst UML protest – is that the government has a constitutional amendment in favor of Madheshi interests approved in parliament.

Indeed, on April 20 the local election was split into two phases – the election in the Madheshi districts to be held only on June 14 – after a government decision made to allow more time to debate and satisfy Madheshi demands.

Last week, the cliffhanger of the June 14 local election got worse. The RPP decided to leave the coalition government in protest against an impeachment of Chief Justice, Sushila Karki, issued by Maoist and NC government leaders.

Without the RPP onboard, the Maoist-NC government may now face great difficulties in securing a majority in parliament needed to approve the Madheshi constitutional amendments, if indeed it goes ahead and tries.

Will the Madheshi demands be met before the second phase of the local election on June 14? Will the Madheshi coalition participate in the local election even if their demands, including the constitutional amendment, are not met? The answers to these questions – hence the fate of the two-phase local election – remain uncertain.